Burma needs Strategy not Strategery
Is Power Mediation a solution?
By Bo Kyaw Nyein
There are two opposing camps or two schools of thought when it comes to dealing with the military junta in
The other side is led by academics, intellectuals and others who feel that the current stalemate and isolation of the SPDC does not serve the interests of the American or Burmese people, and they believe dialogue with the Burmese regime is necessary. They prefer the "Constructive Engagement" policy practiced by ASEAN nations. Thinking that the 2004
After the 2004 election, the isolationists secured the upper hand, and the Burmese junta has been heralded an outpost of tyranny along with North Korea, as defined by U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice. As a strong opponent against military dictatorship in
But on the other hand, without sounding ungrateful to President Bush, as professionals and as intellectuals, one should also think beyond the rhetoric and ask what is the strategy of American foreign policy, if there is one for Burma, and where is it leading to? To date, as far as one can tell, there is no clearly defined well thought-out American foreign policy for
Because of beltway politics, and as the esteemed Senator from Kentucky was one of the most powerful Republican Senators among the Republican leadership during the Republicans majority rule and who also happened to be the senior member of the all-powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and who chaired the Appropriations Sub-committee for Foreign Operations, it seems Bush Administration and State Department officials basically relegated control of Burma policy to the wishes of the powerful Senator.
Behind the Senator, giving advice and formulating American actions is an unofficial group of bi-partisan congressional staff, lobbyists, and NGOs, which is known as the "Burma Group". In typical American culture, this group thinks and acts with some arrogance, thinking they know best for
Burmese people and Burmans in particular are very nationalistic, and because of their long history with colonialism they resent any form of dictation or domination by foreigners. In general, rightly or wrongly, Burmese generals in Pyinmana, Dr Zarni, this author and many of his colleagues, including the current National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB) General Secretary, and many in the Opposition carry this nationalistic pride.
As a result, this group ends up working mostly with an activist group based in
So in the final analysis, "Burma Group" actions are more oriented towards an activists' mentality on an ad hoc basis, rather than deliberate thinking for formulating long term policy with the final goal of long-term political solutions for
Let's examine what the SPDC generals have been doing for the past 18 years while American and the Burmese activists have been shouting rhetoric. At the start, the generals were unsure of themselves and they were short of foreign reserve in hard currency. At that time, it was a wise move to launch economic sanctions and to demand to meet with the National League for Democracy (NLD), which was not only elected by the people but the biggest and most organized opposition in Burma, led by a true iconic leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Though most of the ruling generals may lack intellectual thinking along Western norms, they are battle-tested and street smart fighters. While the two senior generals concentrated on building the armed forces, their key power-base, they relegated foreign affairs, the suppression of internal dissidents and exile opposition to the most cunning of the three ruling generals, General Khin Nyunt, the chief of military intelligence. Following their mentor Ne Win's playbook, the generals detained key opposition players and slowly harassed and destroyed the supporters of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD. They slowly and methodically closed the political space for opposition politicians while stretching out the time. Time, it should be noted, is a tool in and of itself as it destroys the morale and hope of the opposition. They are effectively playing TIME & SPACE.
Opposition leaders, both domestic and in exile, fell for their own rhetoric and failed to recognize the strategy being implemented by the military. Building political infrastructure using underground networks is necessary to build and maintain public support as an important political tool to counter ruthless suppression and, if necessary, to prepare for a national uprising.
The National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), the government in exile, has no clue what is needed to help unite the Burmese in exile and to bring them as a united and effective force to help support and/or to build a formidable opposition and political infrastructure inside
NLD leaders inside the country who were spared arrest also failed to formulate a winning strategy or to change the strategy to meet the challenges imposed by the ruthless ruling generals. The biggest mistake was that these NLD elders failed to delegate responsibilities to more able, younger leaders to find a political solution. The only rhetoric the exiled members and NLD leaders inside consistently know how to shout is: "Free Daw Aung San Suu Kyi". Instead of building a base, they live on slogans, statements and rhetoric. So it is not a surprise that the movement has been reduced to a "Singularity". It makes life so much easier for the ruling generals to implement their strategy, utilizing the principles of time and space. Remove the "Singularity" and the opposition exists only in name.
While successive American administration policy makers failed to formulate a sound and well defined Burma foreign policy and while NCGUB and NLD elders were shouting "Free Daw Aung San Suu Kyi", General Khin Nyunt formed an Office of Strategic Studies (OSS) and started wooing the Indians while cementing the relationship with China and selling the "Constructive Engagement" policy to ASEAN. In other words they were successfully implementing their form of triangulation theory. To buy time they agreed for talks but set a never ending time table for building confidence and understanding. They then initiated the "Roadmap," upon which they are dragging their feet on their first step: the National Convention. During this long stretch of time they have discovered natural gas resources, allowing them to spend even more on military hardware.
While American policies on
Nevertheless, Chinese officials are smooth, knowledgeable and impressive. Make no mistake; Chinese policy is to support the present regime in power, at the same time as not antagonizing the opposition. The Chinese have met with many opposition players and have built a working relationship with a certain younger generation NLD leader in exile in particular, who have a temperament to develop good diplomatic skills, is articulate, understand Western thinking and policy making, and once was a trusted and close aides of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi during the critical years of early 1990s. He enjoys the full confidence of newly elected NLD-LA and NCUB leadership and he works well with other individuals who have intellectual capacity and who can contribute.
Chinese officials regularly visit
Furthermore, the Chinese are not interested in gas and border trading only, they have a
desire to convert Rakhine (Yakine) state to an oil depositary like Texas & Louisiana in America, where they will transport oil from the Middle East to Rakhine and pipe it to Bhamo and then to Yunnan, bypassing the entire trip through the Straits of Malacca to the East China Sea. As most oil business people know, there are certain equity investors who can say no to American sanctions. Negotiations are progressing well and if this plan can be realized and if they can expand upon it to include downstream activities for oil and gas, the building of refineries and other derivatives, Burma can and will become a vital part of China's energy security plan.
Knowing the importance of their gas and geographical location, the Burmese are now
trying to play the Russian card, trying to balance the Chinese with the Russians, and in the process buying another UN veto, just in case the Chinese get cozy with the Americans in the UN. The Burmese generals would rather export all the gas they can find and use atomic energy for local consumption, along the way trying to enrich uranium for military use. They have
So is there an alternate route if isolation and sanctions do not work on one hand and "Constructive Engagement" is just a dud? There is definitely a third solution. In this respect, this author and his colleagues think
Just like in
Instead of
In the meantime the
Relying mostly on activists in the
durable solution for
Otherwise, the U.S. will continue cultivating the political welfare culture where many of the so-called exile governments (yes, there are more than one) and activist groups will beg for money in the name of the Burmese people and democracy, while others will keep writing a Burma Constitution in parallel to the never ending National Convention. This will continue until most players, if not all, pass away from the stage. History will then record this
It must also be clearly understood that the ultimate responsibility to bring democracy back to
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is no doubt an iconic national leader loved and admired by the majority of the people. She is the hope for many. Yet she is just an agent of change. The solution has to be found in a transition that both the military and the democratic leaders can accept, in short of an all out peoples uprising as in the many "colored" revolutions of the early 21st and late 20th centuries. If all the peaceful attempts fail then
If the Burmese truly love their golden land and their leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, they must learn to rise above petty personal conflicts, work hard and find a common thread or platform to introduce unity and strength from which the much required political infrastructure can be built. Without strength, the SPDC generals will never pay attention to the cries or demands of the opposition.
Only the Burmese can save their leader, who has sacrificed enough for the country and the people. Otherwise, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will follow another iconic leader, the Dalai Lama, who is a beloved leader of Tibetan Buddhists and an international figure for world peace. But he is still unable to find a solution for
The
The Burmese too have a choice like George W Bush: Strategy or Strategery?
Bo Kyaw Nyein
bnyein@gmail.com
Bo Kyaw Nyein is the youngest son of U Kyaw Nyein, former Deputy Prime Minister during U Nu's (AFPFL) regime and a close colleague of General Aung San during the
For non-American readers, a note on the meaning of Strategery by Wikipedia: The word "Strategery" gained popularity when it was used in a comedy sketch aired October 7, 2000 , satirizing the erformances of Al Gore and George W. Bush, two candidates for President of the United States, during the first residential debate for election year 2000. Comedian Will Ferrell (SNL) played Bush and used the word "strategery," a mock-Bushism playing on the words "strategy" and "strategic".
